System dynamics applied to water management in lakes
Omid Bozorg-Haddad¹ Paniz Dehghan¹ Soheila Zareie¹ Hugo A. Loáiciga
Abstract
Water withdrawal and changes in hydrologic fluxes have lowered the level of Urmia Lake in Iran, adversely impacting its ecosystem
The continued lower- ing of the Urmia Lake water level would put Iran’s most important aquatic ecosystem in danger of extinction
Therefore, there is an urgent need for man- agement of water withdrawals and for reduction of water use in upstream dams and rivers to halt its continuing decline and allow storage recovery
The Urmia Lake basin was herein modelled with system dynamics (SD) to assess the effects of modifying reservoir operation and water use management on the sustainability of Urmia Lake storage
The model performance was evaluated with the root mean square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient (R²)
The results show that SD with RMSE = 18.0 (10° m³) and R² = 0.952 is accu- rate in simulating Urmia Lake storage
Evaluation of the impacts of several scenarios of agricultural water use on lake storage indicates that reductions in the agricultural sector appear inevitable to restore the water balance of Urmia Lake
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